Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
35°C 32%
34°C 31%
36°C 19%
33°C 13%
신규
$13,790 거래량
신규
$13,790 거래량
2026.07.04
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
13%
34°C
31%
35°C
32%
36°C
19%
37°C
7%
38°C or higher
2%
35°C 32%
34°C 31%
36°C 19%
33°C 13%
신규
$13,790 거래량
신규
$13,790 거래량
2026.07.04
28°C or below
$566 거래량
<1%
29°C
$1,067 거래량
<1%
30°C
$530 거래량
1%
31°C
$267 거래량
1%
32°C
$247 거래량
2%
33°C
$296 거래량
13%
34°C
$1,659 거래량
31%
35°C
$5,194 거래량
32%
36°C
$2,530 거래량
19%
37°C
$535 거래량
7%
38°C or higher
$910 거래량
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
거래량
$13,790종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$13,790종료일
2026.07.04마켓 개설일
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent Central Weather Administration forecasts and ensemble models point to afternoon highs of 34–35°C in Taipei on July 4, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Subtropical summer conditions, elevated urban heat-island effects, and typical diurnal convection with afternoon showers introduce variability that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C depending on cloud timing and coverage. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across northern Taiwan reinforce trader expectations for values near the upper end of climatological norms (32–33°C), while model spread on precipitation leaves room for 36°C if skies clear earlier. New forecast updates and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key variables for resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문