Model consensus from recent runs positions 29°C as the leading outcome for Tel Aviv’s September 26 maximum, with most forecasts from global and regional guidance showing a daytime peak of 28–30°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northwesterly flow. Coastal sea-breeze moderation, typical for the eastern Mediterranean in late September, combined with surface high pressure and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius, supports this narrow range rather than stronger heating or cooling. Yesterday’s observed highs near 29–31°C provide a stable baseline, while minimal cloud cover and light winds limit rapid shifts. Final hourly readings from the Israel Meteorological Service will resolve the exact value, with any late-day surge or earlier peak introducing limited variance around the current market-implied probabilities.