Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus, including runs from global and regional systems, points to a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Tel Aviv on September 26 under stable high-pressure influence with light northwesterly winds and limited cloud cover. This aligns with late-September climatology for the eastern Mediterranean coast, where daytime heating typically peaks in this narrow range absent synoptic disturbances. Current forecasts show no significant warm advection or clear-sky radiative enhancement that would push readings to 30°C or above, while overnight lows near 22–23°C support modest daytime recovery. Trader emphasis on the 29°C outcome reflects the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around this value, with only modest spread from local sea-breeze effects or minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing. Updated model cycles later today will provide the next key refinement ahead of market resolution.