**Trader consensus on Polymarket splits closely between 24°C (46%) and 25°C (42%) for Tokyo’s official maximum on October 10, reflecting tight model agreement under stable high pressure.** Clear skies and light northeasterly winds are forecast to promote strong daytime insolation across the Kanto plain, with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance indicating a peak near 25°C. Minor differences in predicted wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention in central Tokyo stations explain the narrow spread; 26°C or higher remains low-probability (8%) absent stronger warming. Recent observations from October 8 (25.0°C under similar anticyclonic conditions) provide a close analog. Final resolution hinges on the next JMA synoptic update and real-time AMeDAS readings tomorrow morning.