Current ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure system with southeasterly winds and limited cloud cover will drive Warsaw’s maximum temperature on September 30 most likely to 20–21°C. These conditions favor modest daytime warming from overnight lows near 9–10°C, consistent with late-September climatology for the region. Market-implied odds heavily favor 21°C at 52 percent, reflecting tight model consensus around that threshold, while the 19.5 percent on 22°C accounts for minor upside uncertainty from reduced cloudiness or slight warm advection. Updated short-range runs in the next 24–48 hours will further constrain the outcome as resolution nears.