Official temperature observations from Wellington stations, including those reported by MetService, have established a daily maximum of 16°C for September 27, driving the near-certain market consensus. Spring conditions in the region, influenced by prevailing westerly flows and moderate sea surface temperatures around New Zealand, aligned with forecast model outputs that consistently projected this peak without significant afternoon warming. Historical September maxima in Wellington average near 15–16°C, providing climatological context for the outcome. While data revisions are theoretically possible before final verification, the alignment of multiple station readings and real-time monitoring leaves minimal scope for shifts to other thresholds.