Current forecast models from MetService and international sources indicate a maximum of 15°C in Wellington on September 28 under partly cloudy skies following a cold front passage, with brisk northwesterly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This positions 15°C as the market leader at 62% implied probability, reflecting consensus on moderate spring conditions typical for late September, where northerly flow often limits warming despite seasonal norms around 16°C. Recent model runs show limited spread, with 16°C at 30.5% capturing upside potential from stronger nor'westerlies or clearer skies, while cooler outcomes like 14°C remain lower probability amid stable high-pressure building. Updated guidance on wind strength and cloud cover over the next 48 hours will refine these trader-assessed odds.