**Forecast models from MetService, Met Office, and ACCESS-G consensus point to a daytime maximum of 15–16 °C in Wellington on 30 September 2026 under stable high pressure and light northerly flow.** Recent observations show the past several days reaching 14–17 °C with clear to partly cloudy skies, supporting trader weighting toward the 15 °C (48.5 %) and 16 °C (38.5 %) outcomes. Spring climatology in the region typically produces highs of 14–16 °C; the current pattern lacks strong fronts or marine cooling that would suppress readings below 14 °C or allow brief warming to 17 °C. Light winds and limited cloud cover keep diurnal range modest, with latest runs showing only minor spread around the 15–16 °C band. Final model updates and any last-minute wind shifts remain the key near-term variables before the market resolves.