Recent strength in the U.S. economy, persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and expectations of additional policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 21, 2026, near its highest levels in nearly two decades. Elevated term premia reflect fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, AI-related capital demand, and geopolitical risks supporting higher inflation expectations. These factors have lifted yields roughly 80–100 basis points from February lows and limit the scope for sharp declines through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meeting, September CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift rate-path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$297,660 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Below 4.6%
35%
Below 4.7%
53%
Below 4.1%
6%
Below 4.4%
26%
Below 4.2%
12%
Below 4.5%
34%
Below 4.3%
17%
Below 3.9%
3%
Below 3.8%
2%
Below 3.7%
3%
Below 3.6%
2%
Below 3.5%
2%
Below 3.0%
1%
Below 2.0%
2%
Below 1.0%
1%
$297,660 Vol.
Below 4.6%
$540 Vol.
35%
Below 4.7%
$261 Vol.
53%
Below 4.1%
$5,061 Vol.
6%
Below 4.4%
$1,902 Vol.
26%
Below 4.2%
$940 Vol.
12%
Below 4.5%
$1,809 Vol.
34%
Below 4.3%
$1,080 Vol.
17%
Below 3.9%
$54,993 Vol.
3%
Below 3.8%
$62,785 Vol.
2%
Below 3.7%
$35,630 Vol.
3%
Below 3.6%
$8,903 Vol.
2%
Below 3.5%
$43,095 Vol.
2%
Below 3.0%
$7,958 Vol.
1%
Below 2.0%
$564 Vol.
2%
Below 1.0%
$40,696 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent strength in the U.S. economy, persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and expectations of additional policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 21, 2026, near its highest levels in nearly two decades. Elevated term premia reflect fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, AI-related capital demand, and geopolitical risks supporting higher inflation expectations. These factors have lifted yields roughly 80–100 basis points from February lows and limit the scope for sharp declines through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meeting, September CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$297,660End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent strength in the U.S. economy, persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and expectations of additional policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 21, 2026, near its highest levels in nearly two decades. Elevated term premia reflect fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, AI-related capital demand, and geopolitical risks supporting higher inflation expectations. These factors have lifted yields roughly 80–100 basis points from February lows and limit the scope for sharp declines through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meeting, September CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$297,660End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in the U.S. economy, persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and expectations of additional policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.96% as of September 21, 2026, near its highest levels in nearly two decades. Elevated term premia reflect fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, AI-related capital demand, and geopolitical risks supporting higher inflation expectations. These factors have lifted yields roughly 80–100 basis points from February lows and limit the scope for sharp declines through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meeting, September CPI and PCE releases, and labor market data that could shift rate-path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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