OpenAI Codex usage resets—discretionary global or banked quota refills announced by engineering lead Tibo—have averaged one every 6-7 days recently but cluster around product launches, outages, and events. The most recent global reset landed September 26, followed by a September 22 banked reset tied to GPT-6 Sol and Luna. With OpenAI DevDay scheduled for September 29 and an explicit September 26 teaser that “more resets [are] coming next week,” traders see elevated odds of at least one event in the September 28–October 4 window. Uncertainty around exact count stems from variable triggers: a single DevDay-timed reset could keep the total at one or two, while any outage or additional banked grant would push higher, producing the tight 44% spread across zero through four-plus outcomes.