The closely matched probabilities across August nonfarm payrolls ranges underscore labor-market uncertainty following July’s softer-than-expected print and mixed leading indicators. Recent CPI and PPI releases have tempered inflation concerns while initial jobless claims and ADP private-payroll data point to gradual cooling without recessionary signals. Traders weigh the Fed’s data-dependent stance and Treasury yield movements against potential revisions to prior months, with consensus forecasts clustering near 80,000–120,000. Key swing factors include August’s unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and any FOMC communications ahead of the September release that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated150k+ 38%
0 – 50k 30%
50k – 100k 30%
-50k – 0 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
<-50k
10%
-50k – 0
17%
0 – 50k
30%
50k – 100k
34%
100k – 150k
14%
150k+
38%
150k+ 38%
0 – 50k 30%
50k – 100k 30%
-50k – 0 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
<-50k
$20 Vol.
10%
-50k – 0
$70 Vol.
17%
0 – 50k
$57 Vol.
30%
50k – 100k
$30 Vol.
34%
100k – 150k
$20 Vol.
14%
150k+
$20 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe closely matched probabilities across August nonfarm payrolls ranges underscore labor-market uncertainty following July’s softer-than-expected print and mixed leading indicators. Recent CPI and PPI releases have tempered inflation concerns while initial jobless claims and ADP private-payroll data point to gradual cooling without recessionary signals. Traders weigh the Fed’s data-dependent stance and Treasury yield movements against potential revisions to prior months, with consensus forecasts clustering near 80,000–120,000. Key swing factors include August’s unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and any FOMC communications ahead of the September release that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$216End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe closely matched probabilities across August nonfarm payrolls ranges underscore labor-market uncertainty following July’s softer-than-expected print and mixed leading indicators. Recent CPI and PPI releases have tempered inflation concerns while initial jobless claims and ADP private-payroll data point to gradual cooling without recessionary signals. Traders weigh the Fed’s data-dependent stance and Treasury yield movements against potential revisions to prior months, with consensus forecasts clustering near 80,000–120,000. Key swing factors include August’s unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and any FOMC communications ahead of the September release that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$216End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across August nonfarm payrolls ranges underscore labor-market uncertainty following July’s softer-than-expected print and mixed leading indicators. Recent CPI and PPI releases have tempered inflation concerns while initial jobless claims and ADP private-payroll data point to gradual cooling without recessionary signals. Traders weigh the Fed’s data-dependent stance and Treasury yield movements against potential revisions to prior months, with consensus forecasts clustering near 80,000–120,000. Key swing factors include August’s unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and any FOMC communications ahead of the September release that could shift rate-cut expectations and risk sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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