IBM's established pattern of EPS outperformance in 13 of the last 15 quarters underpins the 74% market-implied probability of beating consensus estimates for Q3 2026, scheduled for release on October 21. Analysts project adjusted EPS near $2.88–$2.90 and revenue of roughly $16.3–$16.8 billion, following a mixed Q2 result that featured an in-line or slight miss and prompted management to trim full-year constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 4–5%. Traders appear to price in resilience from high-margin software growth, productivity-driven margin expansion, and the company's history of conservative analyst forecasts, even as infrastructure softness and prior spending shifts introduce uncertainty ahead of the print.