Incumbent Republican Brad Little seeks a third term against Democrat Terri Pickens in Idaho's solidly Republican environment, where the party has won every gubernatorial contest since 1990 and Donald Trump carried the state by 36 points in 2024. Recent polling averages place Little in the mid-to-high 40s against Pickens in the upper 20s, with independents such as John Stegner drawing additional support and leaving substantial undecided voters. These figures, combined with structural fundamentals and historical GOP margins in statewide races, underpin trader consensus that a Republican victory is near-certain while distributing probability across margin buckets centered on the low-to-mid 20s. Limited new polling since mid-September and the presence of multiple candidates on the ballot sustain uncertainty over the precise spread, as shifts in turnout among conservative or independent voters could compress or expand the final gap. Scheduled events such as any remaining debates or late-cycle endorsements could provide the clearest near-term catalysts for margin refinement ahead of November 3.