Recent September ISM Manufacturing PMI at 54.5, just below consensus and little changed from August, anchors trader views for the October release amid ongoing expansion for the ninth straight month. Elevated prices paid at 77.9 highlight intensifying input cost pressures from tariffs and commodities, while new orders and backlogs strengthened, pointing to resilient demand tied to technology and domestic activity. The dispersed market-implied odds, with 57.0-57.9 holding the highest share at 26%, reflect uncertainty over whether momentum from AI-related spending and inventory rebuilding will lift the index further or if cooling production and employment trends will cap gains. Key upcoming data on labor markets and inflation will shape revisions to these probabilities ahead of the early-November print.