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icon for Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

icon for Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

5% chance
Polymarket

$31,963 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$31,963 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Joseph Aoun has held Lebanon’s presidency since his January 2025 election by parliament for a standard six-year term, positioning him well into his mandate with no scheduled vacancy or constitutional trigger for removal by year-end. Recent diplomatic activity, including his July 2026 White House meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on Israeli withdrawals and state sovereignty, underscores his active role in ongoing ceasefire and security negotiations. Parliament’s extension of its own mandate to 2028 amid regional tensions has further stabilized the political calendar without challenging executive continuity. With no reported legislative moves, opposition campaigns, or institutional crises targeting his tenure in the past month, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to an early exit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,963
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Joseph Aoun has held Lebanon’s presidency since his January 2025 election by parliament for a standard six-year term, positioning him well into his mandate with no scheduled vacancy or constitutional trigger for removal by year-end. Recent diplomatic activity, including his July 2026 White House meeting with U.S. President Trump focused on Israeli withdrawals and state sovereignty, underscores his active role in ongoing ceasefire and security negotiations. Parliament’s extension of its own mandate to 2028 amid regional tensions has further stabilized the political calendar without challenging executive continuity. With no reported legislative moves, opposition campaigns, or institutional crises targeting his tenure in the past month, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to an early exit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,963
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" has generated $32K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.