**KOSPI's path to a new all-time high before 2028 hinges on sustained AI-driven semiconductor momentum amid global headwinds.** The index, trading near 6,870 as of late September 2026 after peaking above 9,385 in June, reflects upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts of 3.2–4.0% from institutions including the ADB and OECD, fueled by surging chip exports and corporate capex. Strong Q3 earnings estimates, particularly for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, alongside Goldman Sachs' 12,000 target, support trader optimism for a retest. However, elevated U.S. Treasury yields above 5.2%, Middle East-driven oil prices, and tariff uncertainties create near-term resistance, keeping the "Yes" probability tightly balanced at 52.5%. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming export data, Micron results, and policy developments on corporate governance and shareholder returns that could shift sentiment decisively.