Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally slated for May 2026, were postponed to 2028 amid ongoing security challenges from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and displacement in southern districts, leaving the 2022 parliament in place. This extension, combined with Hezbollah and Amal's reduced influence after military setbacks and the election of President Joseph Aoun plus Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's reform-focused government, has produced a highly fragmented field. Trader consensus spreads thinly across established sects and parties because Lebanon's confessional seat allocation rewards broad alliances rather than outright majorities, while 19% undecided voters and rising independent or reform lists add volatility. Factors that could consolidate support include successful state efforts to assert control over armed groups, diaspora voting reforms, or coalition deals ahead of municipal trends and economic stabilization measures.