**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 10–11°C in Amsterdam on October 10 under persistent westerly flow, with showers and moderate winds limiting nocturnal cooling.** Recent KNMI guidance and ensemble runs from ECMWF and other centers show a mild maritime air mass, with daytime maxima around 14–15°C and overnight lows moderated by cloud cover, precipitation, and mixing from 15–20 mph winds. This setup reduces the chance of radiative cooling that could push readings toward 8°C or below, while preventing the higher values seen earlier in the month. The broad distribution of market-implied probabilities across 8–16°C captures remaining uncertainty in shower timing and exact wind gusts, which can shift the minimum by a degree or two. Historical October averages near 8°C provide context, but current synoptic patterns favor the middle of the range. Updated model runs overnight and morning observations will refine the outcome ahead of resolution.