Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the Dutch KNMI and ECMWF points to a mild overnight minimum near 15–16°C for Amsterdam on September 28, driven by persistent cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, light southerly to southwesterly flow advecting Atlantic air, and modest dew points around 14–15°C. This keeps trader-implied odds nearly even between outcomes above 21°C (47.5%) and 11°C or below (45.0%), reflecting uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and any evening shower timing that could alter the low by 1–2°C. Historical September minima average near 10°C, so current conditions represent above-normal warmth; updated high-resolution runs tonight and early-morning observations will likely narrow the spread before resolution.