Recent ensemble forecasts from numerical weather models place Ankara's overnight minimum on September 26 near 9–10°C under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting radiative cooling after daytime highs of 22–24°C. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 7°C, 9°C, and 12°C, as small differences in cloud cover, dew point, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the exact low by 2–3°C. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical minima of 10–14°C, making current cooler guidance the key factor elevating probabilities for single-digit outcomes while leaving room for upward revisions if models trend warmer before resolution.