**Trader consensus strongly favors an 8°C minimum in Ankara on September 25, 2026, at 92.5% implied probability, reflecting convergence across official forecasts on radiative cooling under clear, calm high-pressure conditions overnight.** Multiple sources, including Turkish Meteorological Service (MGM) district reports and international models, project overnight lows of 7–10°C, with hourly guidance frequently pinpointing 8°C around dawn (e.g., 05:00–07:00 local time) amid light easterly/northeasterly winds and low humidity. This aligns with typical early-autumn patterns for the Anatolian plateau, where clear skies promote efficient surface heat loss after daytime highs near 19–20°C. The 7°C and 6°C bins hold secondary support (48% and 21.5%), while warmer outcomes remain near-zero, consistent with model agreement and absence of warmer advection or cloud cover. Key upcoming resolution factors include the final official minimum from the designated station (likely Ankara/Esenboğa or central observations), which could shift slightly due to local microclimates, exact wind speeds, or measurement timing. A stronger-than-forecast breeze or unexpected cloud increase could limit cooling below 8°C, while drier/calmer conditions might push it to 7°C or lower. No major forecast revisions have emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter this positioning.