Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a showery, mostly cloudy Friday in Cape Town with northwest winds and high humidity, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures near 18–21 °C. Springtime Atlantic moisture and a passing trough are expected to enhance cloud cover and precipitation chances, reducing solar insolation compared with clearer days earlier in the week. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 20 °C threshold, with some runs favoring slight warming if showers remain brief while others keep readings lower under persistent overcast. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily, as official South African Weather Service updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours could shift probabilities among the closely matched 20–22 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on September 25?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 25?
20°C 31%
21°C 21%
19°C 19%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
18°C or below
5%
19°C
19%
20°C
31%
21°C
21%
22°C
15%
23°C
12%
24°C
9%
25°C
7%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
20°C 31%
21°C 21%
19°C 19%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
18°C or below
$185 Vol.
5%
19°C
$12 Vol.
19%
20°C
$0 Vol.
31%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$8 Vol.
12%
24°C
$46 Vol.
9%
25°C
$193 Vol.
7%
26°C
$41 Vol.
2%
27°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a showery, mostly cloudy Friday in Cape Town with northwest winds and high humidity, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures near 18–21 °C. Springtime Atlantic moisture and a passing trough are expected to enhance cloud cover and precipitation chances, reducing solar insolation compared with clearer days earlier in the week. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 20 °C threshold, with some runs favoring slight warming if showers remain brief while others keep readings lower under persistent overcast. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily, as official South African Weather Service updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours could shift probabilities among the closely matched 20–22 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$730End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a showery, mostly cloudy Friday in Cape Town with northwest winds and high humidity, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures near 18–21 °C. Springtime Atlantic moisture and a passing trough are expected to enhance cloud cover and precipitation chances, reducing solar insolation compared with clearer days earlier in the week. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 20 °C threshold, with some runs favoring slight warming if showers remain brief while others keep readings lower under persistent overcast. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily, as official South African Weather Service updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours could shift probabilities among the closely matched 20–22 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$730End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a showery, mostly cloudy Friday in Cape Town with northwest winds and high humidity, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures near 18–21 °C. Springtime Atlantic moisture and a passing trough are expected to enhance cloud cover and precipitation chances, reducing solar insolation compared with clearer days earlier in the week. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 20 °C threshold, with some runs favoring slight warming if showers remain brief while others keep readings lower under persistent overcast. Traders appear to weigh these variables heavily, as official South African Weather Service updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours could shift probabilities among the closely matched 20–22 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions