Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a Dallas low in the low 70s Fahrenheit for September 25, supported by easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under a warm air mass. These conditions align with recent September observations where overnight minima have frequently held in the mid-70s amid above-normal temperatures. Market-implied odds nevertheless place 80°F or higher at 49 percent, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential model revisions before resolution. Historical climatology shows an average low near 67°F, but the current pattern favors warmer outcomes absent a stronger cold front. Fresh NOAA model updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely influence positioning ahead of the close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on September 25?
61°F or below 100%
80°F or higher 98%
70-71°F 40%
72-73°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
61°F or below
100%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66-67°F
39%
68-69°F
39%
70-71°F
40%
72-73°F
40%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
39%
80°F or higher
98%
61°F or below 100%
80°F or higher 98%
70-71°F 40%
72-73°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
100%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
39%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
39%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
40%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
40%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
39%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
39%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
39%
80°F or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a Dallas low in the low 70s Fahrenheit for September 25, supported by easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under a warm air mass. These conditions align with recent September observations where overnight minima have frequently held in the mid-70s amid above-normal temperatures. Market-implied odds nevertheless place 80°F or higher at 49 percent, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential model revisions before resolution. Historical climatology shows an average low near 67°F, but the current pattern favors warmer outcomes absent a stronger cold front. Fresh NOAA model updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely influence positioning ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a Dallas low in the low 70s Fahrenheit for September 25, supported by easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under a warm air mass. These conditions align with recent September observations where overnight minima have frequently held in the mid-70s amid above-normal temperatures. Market-implied odds nevertheless place 80°F or higher at 49 percent, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential model revisions before resolution. Historical climatology shows an average low near 67°F, but the current pattern favors warmer outcomes absent a stronger cold front. Fresh NOAA model updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely influence positioning ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance project a Dallas low in the low 70s Fahrenheit for September 25, supported by easterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under a warm air mass. These conditions align with recent September observations where overnight minima have frequently held in the mid-70s amid above-normal temperatures. Market-implied odds nevertheless place 80°F or higher at 49 percent, reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty and potential model revisions before resolution. Historical climatology shows an average low near 67°F, but the current pattern favors warmer outcomes absent a stronger cold front. Fresh NOAA model updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely influence positioning ahead of the close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions