Recent JMA forecasts and model consensus indicate a cloudy September 23 for Tokyo with a maximum near 25°C and 20-40% rain chances, keeping surface heating limited under overcast skies and northeasterly flow. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest daytime insolation and residual moisture from prior days’ rainfall suppress peaks below late-September normals of 25-26°C. Key variables include exact cloud thickness and any afternoon clearing that could allow a brief push toward 26°C, or sustained cover and showers favoring 23°C. Official Tokyo station observations at 15:00 JST on resolution day will determine the precise high, with traders weighting the balance of these atmospheric controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
24°C 35%
25°C 31%
23°C 17%
26°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
4%
23°C
17%
24°C
35%
25°C
31%
26°C
14%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 35%
25°C 31%
23°C 17%
26°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
$316 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$131 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$275 Vol.
4%
23°C
$1,232 Vol.
17%
24°C
$1,264 Vol.
35%
25°C
$1,188 Vol.
31%
26°C
$1,666 Vol.
14%
27°C
$490 Vol.
4%
28°C
$197 Vol.
2%
29°C
$241 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$625 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts and model consensus indicate a cloudy September 23 for Tokyo with a maximum near 25°C and 20-40% rain chances, keeping surface heating limited under overcast skies and northeasterly flow. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest daytime insolation and residual moisture from prior days’ rainfall suppress peaks below late-September normals of 25-26°C. Key variables include exact cloud thickness and any afternoon clearing that could allow a brief push toward 26°C, or sustained cover and showers favoring 23°C. Official Tokyo station observations at 15:00 JST on resolution day will determine the precise high, with traders weighting the balance of these atmospheric controls.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,624End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts and model consensus indicate a cloudy September 23 for Tokyo with a maximum near 25°C and 20-40% rain chances, keeping surface heating limited under overcast skies and northeasterly flow. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest daytime insolation and residual moisture from prior days’ rainfall suppress peaks below late-September normals of 25-26°C. Key variables include exact cloud thickness and any afternoon clearing that could allow a brief push toward 26°C, or sustained cover and showers favoring 23°C. Official Tokyo station observations at 15:00 JST on resolution day will determine the precise high, with traders weighting the balance of these atmospheric controls.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,624End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecasts and model consensus indicate a cloudy September 23 for Tokyo with a maximum near 25°C and 20-40% rain chances, keeping surface heating limited under overcast skies and northeasterly flow. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest daytime insolation and residual moisture from prior days’ rainfall suppress peaks below late-September normals of 25-26°C. Key variables include exact cloud thickness and any afternoon clearing that could allow a brief push toward 26°C, or sustained cover and showers favoring 23°C. Official Tokyo station observations at 15:00 JST on resolution day will determine the precise high, with traders weighting the balance of these atmospheric controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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