Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80-90%, and light northeast winds associated with the departing Typhoon Dujuan's moisture field. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows in the 20-22°C range rather than cooler values typical of clearer autumn nights. Trader consensus around 21°C (43.5%) and 22°C (39%) reflects this model agreement on moderate stabilization, with lower odds on 20°C reflecting residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Updated JMA briefings and evening model runs will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
21°C 44%
22°C 35%
24°C 20%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
14%
21°C
44%
22°C
38%
23°C
6%
24°C
20%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 44%
22°C 35%
24°C 20%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
17°C or below
$35 Vol.
1%
18°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$84 Vol.
1%
20°C
$342 Vol.
14%
21°C
$745 Vol.
44%
22°C
$890 Vol.
38%
23°C
$526 Vol.
6%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80-90%, and light northeast winds associated with the departing Typhoon Dujuan's moisture field. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows in the 20-22°C range rather than cooler values typical of clearer autumn nights. Trader consensus around 21°C (43.5%) and 22°C (39%) reflects this model agreement on moderate stabilization, with lower odds on 20°C reflecting residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Updated JMA briefings and evening model runs will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,753End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80-90%, and light northeast winds associated with the departing Typhoon Dujuan's moisture field. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows in the 20-22°C range rather than cooler values typical of clearer autumn nights. Trader consensus around 21°C (43.5%) and 22°C (39%) reflects this model agreement on moderate stabilization, with lower odds on 20°C reflecting residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Updated JMA briefings and evening model runs will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,753End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature near 21°C for Tokyo on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 80-90%, and light northeast winds associated with the departing Typhoon Dujuan's moisture field. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows in the 20-22°C range rather than cooler values typical of clearer autumn nights. Trader consensus around 21°C (43.5%) and 22°C (39%) reflects this model agreement on moderate stabilization, with lower odds on 20°C reflecting residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and wind shifts. Updated JMA briefings and evening model runs will refine the precise minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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