**Forecast consensus for New York City’s overnight low on September 25 centers on the mid-to-upper 50s, aligning with market-implied probabilities peaking at 56–59°F.** Multiple models indicate persistent northeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, with overnight temperatures expected near 55–59°F under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup limits strong radiative cooling while moderate winds promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. Historical climatology places the September 25 average low near 58°F, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest cooling. Uncertainties in exact minimums arise from variations in cloud timing and precipitation onset, which can shift the low by a few degrees. Traders appear to weigh these factors, concentrating probability on the 56–61°F range where model agreement is strongest ahead of final NWS updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 25?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 25?
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 33%
64-65°F 32%
66-67°F 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
49°F or below
27%
50-51°F
33%
52-53°F
29%
54-55°F
31%
56-57°F
29%
58-59°F
37%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
32%
66-67°F
32%
68°F or higher
26%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 33%
64-65°F 32%
66-67°F 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
27%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
33%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
29%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
31%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
29%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
37%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
24%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
32%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
32%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for New York City’s overnight low on September 25 centers on the mid-to-upper 50s, aligning with market-implied probabilities peaking at 56–59°F.** Multiple models indicate persistent northeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, with overnight temperatures expected near 55–59°F under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup limits strong radiative cooling while moderate winds promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. Historical climatology places the September 25 average low near 58°F, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest cooling. Uncertainties in exact minimums arise from variations in cloud timing and precipitation onset, which can shift the low by a few degrees. Traders appear to weigh these factors, concentrating probability on the 56–61°F range where model agreement is strongest ahead of final NWS updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for New York City’s overnight low on September 25 centers on the mid-to-upper 50s, aligning with market-implied probabilities peaking at 56–59°F.** Multiple models indicate persistent northeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, with overnight temperatures expected near 55–59°F under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup limits strong radiative cooling while moderate winds promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. Historical climatology places the September 25 average low near 58°F, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest cooling. Uncertainties in exact minimums arise from variations in cloud timing and precipitation onset, which can shift the low by a few degrees. Traders appear to weigh these factors, concentrating probability on the 56–61°F range where model agreement is strongest ahead of final NWS updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for New York City’s overnight low on September 25 centers on the mid-to-upper 50s, aligning with market-implied probabilities peaking at 56–59°F.** Multiple models indicate persistent northeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, with overnight temperatures expected near 55–59°F under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup limits strong radiative cooling while moderate winds promote mixing that prevents sharper drops. Historical climatology places the September 25 average low near 58°F, providing a baseline against which current guidance shows modest cooling. Uncertainties in exact minimums arise from variations in cloud timing and precipitation onset, which can shift the low by a few degrees. Traders appear to weigh these factors, concentrating probability on the 56–61°F range where model agreement is strongest ahead of final NWS updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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