Recent forecasts from multiple models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 32–34°C in Guangzhou on September 23, driven by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm activity that limits solar heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions, with high humidity and light variable winds, promote scattered showers that suppress afternoon maxima below clearer-sky potential while maintaining elevated dew points near 25°C. Ensemble spread arises from uncertainty in convective timing and intensity, which can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C depending on whether heavy rain arrives before or after peak insolation. Trader odds clustered around 33–35°C reflect this model consensus tempered by recent warmer days and the narrow window for resolution. Updated CMA guidance and short-range model runs will likely narrow probabilities before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 23?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 23?
34°C 27%
33°C 25%
35°C 21%
32°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
3%
30°C
7%
31°C
18%
32°C
19%
33°C
25%
34°C
27%
35°C
21%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
1%
34°C 27%
33°C 25%
35°C 21%
32°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
27°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
3%
29°C
$5 Vol.
3%
30°C
$22 Vol.
7%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
19%
33°C
$0 Vol.
25%
34°C
$0 Vol.
27%
35°C
$6 Vol.
21%
36°C
$371 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$80 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 32–34°C in Guangzhou on September 23, driven by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm activity that limits solar heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions, with high humidity and light variable winds, promote scattered showers that suppress afternoon maxima below clearer-sky potential while maintaining elevated dew points near 25°C. Ensemble spread arises from uncertainty in convective timing and intensity, which can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C depending on whether heavy rain arrives before or after peak insolation. Trader odds clustered around 33–35°C reflect this model consensus tempered by recent warmer days and the narrow window for resolution. Updated CMA guidance and short-range model runs will likely narrow probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$494End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 32–34°C in Guangzhou on September 23, driven by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm activity that limits solar heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions, with high humidity and light variable winds, promote scattered showers that suppress afternoon maxima below clearer-sky potential while maintaining elevated dew points near 25°C. Ensemble spread arises from uncertainty in convective timing and intensity, which can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C depending on whether heavy rain arrives before or after peak insolation. Trader odds clustered around 33–35°C reflect this model consensus tempered by recent warmer days and the narrow window for resolution. Updated CMA guidance and short-range model runs will likely narrow probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$494End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models and the China Meteorological Administration indicate a high of 32–34°C in Guangzhou on September 23, driven by increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm activity that limits solar heating. Subtropical monsoon conditions, with high humidity and light variable winds, promote scattered showers that suppress afternoon maxima below clearer-sky potential while maintaining elevated dew points near 25°C. Ensemble spread arises from uncertainty in convective timing and intensity, which can shift the daily peak by 1–2°C depending on whether heavy rain arrives before or after peak insolation. Trader odds clustered around 33–35°C reflect this model consensus tempered by recent warmer days and the narrow window for resolution. Updated CMA guidance and short-range model runs will likely narrow probabilities before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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