Recent forecast runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a warming trend for São Paulo, with daily highs on September 25 likely reaching 26–28°C as a post-frontal high-pressure system builds and allows greater solar heating during the Southern Hemisphere spring transition. Current conditions remain cooler due to recent cloud cover and showers, but subsidence and lighter easterly winds are expected to reduce moisture and permit afternoon peaks near historical September averages of 23–25°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because short-range model spreads remain modest, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the low probability of strong sea-breeze suppression or an unseasonal warm advection event. Updated model guidance and INMET briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 25?
27°C 27%
28°C 27%
25°C 25%
26°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
7%
25°C
25%
26°C
24%
27°C
27%
28°C
27%
29°C
20%
30°C
8%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 27%
28°C 27%
25°C 25%
26°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
8%
31°C
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a warming trend for São Paulo, with daily highs on September 25 likely reaching 26–28°C as a post-frontal high-pressure system builds and allows greater solar heating during the Southern Hemisphere spring transition. Current conditions remain cooler due to recent cloud cover and showers, but subsidence and lighter easterly winds are expected to reduce moisture and permit afternoon peaks near historical September averages of 23–25°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because short-range model spreads remain modest, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the low probability of strong sea-breeze suppression or an unseasonal warm advection event. Updated model guidance and INMET briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a warming trend for São Paulo, with daily highs on September 25 likely reaching 26–28°C as a post-frontal high-pressure system builds and allows greater solar heating during the Southern Hemisphere spring transition. Current conditions remain cooler due to recent cloud cover and showers, but subsidence and lighter easterly winds are expected to reduce moisture and permit afternoon peaks near historical September averages of 23–25°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because short-range model spreads remain modest, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the low probability of strong sea-breeze suppression or an unseasonal warm advection event. Updated model guidance and INMET briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a warming trend for São Paulo, with daily highs on September 25 likely reaching 26–28°C as a post-frontal high-pressure system builds and allows greater solar heating during the Southern Hemisphere spring transition. Current conditions remain cooler due to recent cloud cover and showers, but subsidence and lighter easterly winds are expected to reduce moisture and permit afternoon peaks near historical September averages of 23–25°C. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because short-range model spreads remain modest, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the low probability of strong sea-breeze suppression or an unseasonal warm advection event. Updated model guidance and INMET briefings over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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