Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and regional guidance indicates a maximum temperature near 20–21°C for Amsterdam on September 23, driven by southerly to southwesterly flow under moderate pressure gradients that limit strong advection of cooler maritime air. Cloud cover and scattered showers expected during peak heating hours introduce uncertainty in the precise daily high, as timing of precipitation and boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology at Schiphol averages around 18–19°C, providing context for the mild anomaly. With market-implied probabilities tightly split between 20°C and 21°C, traders are pricing the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and potential model updates ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
20°C 40%
21°C 38%
19°C 14%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
14%
20°C
40%
21°C
38%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 40%
21°C 38%
19°C 14%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
14°C or below
$330 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$19 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C
$221 Vol.
2%
18°C
$105 Vol.
4%
19°C
$128 Vol.
14%
20°C
$251 Vol.
40%
21°C
$514 Vol.
38%
22°C
$180 Vol.
5%
23°C
$8 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$94 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and regional guidance indicates a maximum temperature near 20–21°C for Amsterdam on September 23, driven by southerly to southwesterly flow under moderate pressure gradients that limit strong advection of cooler maritime air. Cloud cover and scattered showers expected during peak heating hours introduce uncertainty in the precise daily high, as timing of precipitation and boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology at Schiphol averages around 18–19°C, providing context for the mild anomaly. With market-implied probabilities tightly split between 20°C and 21°C, traders are pricing the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and potential model updates ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,854End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and regional guidance indicates a maximum temperature near 20–21°C for Amsterdam on September 23, driven by southerly to southwesterly flow under moderate pressure gradients that limit strong advection of cooler maritime air. Cloud cover and scattered showers expected during peak heating hours introduce uncertainty in the precise daily high, as timing of precipitation and boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology at Schiphol averages around 18–19°C, providing context for the mild anomaly. With market-implied probabilities tightly split between 20°C and 21°C, traders are pricing the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and potential model updates ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,854End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest model consensus from sources including GFS and regional guidance indicates a maximum temperature near 20–21°C for Amsterdam on September 23, driven by southerly to southwesterly flow under moderate pressure gradients that limit strong advection of cooler maritime air. Cloud cover and scattered showers expected during peak heating hours introduce uncertainty in the precise daily high, as timing of precipitation and boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology at Schiphol averages around 18–19°C, providing context for the mild anomaly. With market-implied probabilities tightly split between 20°C and 21°C, traders are pricing the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and potential model updates ahead of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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