Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 13–14°C overnight on September 23, driven by mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light rain that limits radiative cooling. These conditions contrast with the long-term average low of about 10°C for the date and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-teens values while still assigning meaningful probability to cooler outcomes if clearer skies develop. Traders weigh potential model shifts in steering patterns and precipitation timing, with updated runs from official agencies like KNMI and ECMWF expected to refine overnight lows ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
7°C or below 68%
17°C or higher 65%
13°C 33%
11°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
7°C or below
68%
8°C
6%
9°C
1%
10°C
20%
11°C
22%
12°C
22%
13°C
33%
14°C
21%
15°C
19%
16°C
19%
17°C or higher
65%
7°C or below 68%
17°C or higher 65%
13°C 33%
11°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
7°C or below
$100 Vol.
68%
8°C
$65 Vol.
6%
9°C
$40 Vol.
1%
10°C
$8 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
33%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C or higher
$100 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 13–14°C overnight on September 23, driven by mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light rain that limits radiative cooling. These conditions contrast with the long-term average low of about 10°C for the date and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-teens values while still assigning meaningful probability to cooler outcomes if clearer skies develop. Traders weigh potential model shifts in steering patterns and precipitation timing, with updated runs from official agencies like KNMI and ECMWF expected to refine overnight lows ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$314End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 13–14°C overnight on September 23, driven by mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light rain that limits radiative cooling. These conditions contrast with the long-term average low of about 10°C for the date and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-teens values while still assigning meaningful probability to cooler outcomes if clearer skies develop. Traders weigh potential model shifts in steering patterns and precipitation timing, with updated runs from official agencies like KNMI and ECMWF expected to refine overnight lows ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$314End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a minimum temperature near 13–14°C overnight on September 23, driven by mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light rain that limits radiative cooling. These conditions contrast with the long-term average low of about 10°C for the date and explain why market-implied odds cluster around mid-teens values while still assigning meaningful probability to cooler outcomes if clearer skies develop. Traders weigh potential model shifts in steering patterns and precipitation timing, with updated runs from official agencies like KNMI and ECMWF expected to refine overnight lows ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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