Recent forecasts from multiple models project Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 25 in the 14–16°C range, driven by a moderating air mass after recent instability and southeasterly flow that kept overnight lows near 13–15°C on the 23rd. Clearing skies and lighter winds expected overnight into the 25th should limit further cooling, while daytime heating reaches 22–27°C. Trader consensus remains closely divided between sub-10°C and 20°C+ outcomes because model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual moisture introduce uncertainty near the 15°C threshold; new regional model runs or surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 25?
10°C or below 91%
20°C or higher 89%
11°C 38%
18°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
10°C or below
91%
11°C
38%
12°C
20%
13°C
20%
14°C
21%
15°C
27%
16°C
21%
17°C
20%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C or higher
89%
10°C or below 91%
20°C or higher 89%
11°C 38%
18°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
91%
11°C
$10 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$10 Vol.
38%
19°C
$10 Vol.
38%
20°C or higher
$10 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 25 in the 14–16°C range, driven by a moderating air mass after recent instability and southeasterly flow that kept overnight lows near 13–15°C on the 23rd. Clearing skies and lighter winds expected overnight into the 25th should limit further cooling, while daytime heating reaches 22–27°C. Trader consensus remains closely divided between sub-10°C and 20°C+ outcomes because model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual moisture introduce uncertainty near the 15°C threshold; new regional model runs or surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 25 in the 14–16°C range, driven by a moderating air mass after recent instability and southeasterly flow that kept overnight lows near 13–15°C on the 23rd. Clearing skies and lighter winds expected overnight into the 25th should limit further cooling, while daytime heating reaches 22–27°C. Trader consensus remains closely divided between sub-10°C and 20°C+ outcomes because model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual moisture introduce uncertainty near the 15°C threshold; new regional model runs or surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models project Sao Paulo's minimum temperature on September 25 in the 14–16°C range, driven by a moderating air mass after recent instability and southeasterly flow that kept overnight lows near 13–15°C on the 23rd. Clearing skies and lighter winds expected overnight into the 25th should limit further cooling, while daytime heating reaches 22–27°C. Trader consensus remains closely divided between sub-10°C and 20°C+ outcomes because model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual moisture introduce uncertainty near the 15°C threshold; new regional model runs or surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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