Recent forecast runs from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a daily minimum near 15°C for Buenos Aires on September 25, driven by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This keeps overnight lows well above the 11°C threshold while limiting upside potential beyond 20°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment remains nearly even between the sub-12°C and 21°C+ bins because small shifts in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of any southerly surge could alter the minimum by 3–5°C. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 10–12°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth that markets are pricing with high uncertainty two days out. Updated model guidance and local observations through September 24 will likely resolve much of the spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 25?
21°C or higher 96%
11°C or below 48%
19°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
11°C or below
48%
12°C
20%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
21%
16°C
20%
17°C
20%
18°C
20%
19°C
39%
20°C
39%
21°C or higher
96%
21°C or higher 96%
11°C or below 48%
19°C 39%
20°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
48%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$10 Vol.
39%
20°C
$10 Vol.
39%
21°C or higher
$10 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a daily minimum near 15°C for Buenos Aires on September 25, driven by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This keeps overnight lows well above the 11°C threshold while limiting upside potential beyond 20°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment remains nearly even between the sub-12°C and 21°C+ bins because small shifts in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of any southerly surge could alter the minimum by 3–5°C. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 10–12°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth that markets are pricing with high uncertainty two days out. Updated model guidance and local observations through September 24 will likely resolve much of the spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a daily minimum near 15°C for Buenos Aires on September 25, driven by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This keeps overnight lows well above the 11°C threshold while limiting upside potential beyond 20°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment remains nearly even between the sub-12°C and 21°C+ bins because small shifts in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of any southerly surge could alter the minimum by 3–5°C. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 10–12°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth that markets are pricing with high uncertainty two days out. Updated model guidance and local observations through September 24 will likely resolve much of the spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a daily minimum near 15°C for Buenos Aires on September 25, driven by northerly flow advecting milder maritime air ahead of a weak frontal boundary. This keeps overnight lows well above the 11°C threshold while limiting upside potential beyond 20°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment remains nearly even between the sub-12°C and 21°C+ bins because small shifts in wind direction, cloud cover, or timing of any southerly surge could alter the minimum by 3–5°C. Historical September climatology shows typical minima around 10–12°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth that markets are pricing with high uncertainty two days out. Updated model guidance and local observations through September 24 will likely resolve much of the spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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