Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a likely overnight low near 8–10°C for Toronto on September 25 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This places the minimum below the 1991–2020 average of 11.9°C yet well above the sub-5°C threshold or the 15°C+ level. The near-even market split between those extremes reflects model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, which can alter cooling rates by several degrees, alongside typical late-September variability where calm, dry nights occasionally produce sharper drops than ensemble means project. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 25?
15°C or higher 96%
5°C or below 49%
13°C 39%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
5°C or below
49%
6°C
20%
7°C
20%
8°C
21%
9°C
21%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C
20%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C or higher
96%
15°C or higher 96%
5°C or below 49%
13°C 39%
14°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
6°C
$0 Vol.
20%
7°C
$0 Vol.
20%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$10 Vol.
39%
14°C
$10 Vol.
39%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a likely overnight low near 8–10°C for Toronto on September 25 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This places the minimum below the 1991–2020 average of 11.9°C yet well above the sub-5°C threshold or the 15°C+ level. The near-even market split between those extremes reflects model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, which can alter cooling rates by several degrees, alongside typical late-September variability where calm, dry nights occasionally produce sharper drops than ensemble means project. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a likely overnight low near 8–10°C for Toronto on September 25 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This places the minimum below the 1991–2020 average of 11.9°C yet well above the sub-5°C threshold or the 15°C+ level. The near-even market split between those extremes reflects model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, which can alter cooling rates by several degrees, alongside typical late-September variability where calm, dry nights occasionally produce sharper drops than ensemble means project. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Environment Canada and multiple models indicate a likely overnight low near 8–10°C for Toronto on September 25 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This places the minimum below the 1991–2020 average of 11.9°C yet well above the sub-5°C threshold or the 15°C+ level. The near-even market split between those extremes reflects model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, which can alter cooling rates by several degrees, alongside typical late-September variability where calm, dry nights occasionally produce sharper drops than ensemble means project. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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