Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a mild overnight period for San Francisco on September 25, with lows likely in the upper 50s to low 60s amid a warming trend through midweek followed by gradual cooling from an approaching dry cold front and stronger onshore flow. This setup, combined with limited marine layer development and seasonal norms where September lows average near 57°F at SFO, supports trader emphasis on warmer outcomes like 68°F or higher. Model consensus highlights modest wind shifts and mixing aloft as key variables that could nudge the minimum, with updated NWS guidance and overnight observations serving as primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 25?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 25?
58-59°F 54%
49°F or below 50%
68°F or higher 47.6%
60-61°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
49°F or below
50%
50-51°F
20%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
20%
56-57°F
20%
58-59°F
32%
60-61°F
22%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
20%
66-67°F
10%
68°F or higher
48%
58-59°F 54%
49°F or below 50%
68°F or higher 47.6%
60-61°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
50%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
20%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
20%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
20%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
20%
58-59°F
$47 Vol.
32%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
22%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
20%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
10%
68°F or higher
$10 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a mild overnight period for San Francisco on September 25, with lows likely in the upper 50s to low 60s amid a warming trend through midweek followed by gradual cooling from an approaching dry cold front and stronger onshore flow. This setup, combined with limited marine layer development and seasonal norms where September lows average near 57°F at SFO, supports trader emphasis on warmer outcomes like 68°F or higher. Model consensus highlights modest wind shifts and mixing aloft as key variables that could nudge the minimum, with updated NWS guidance and overnight observations serving as primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$77End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a mild overnight period for San Francisco on September 25, with lows likely in the upper 50s to low 60s amid a warming trend through midweek followed by gradual cooling from an approaching dry cold front and stronger onshore flow. This setup, combined with limited marine layer development and seasonal norms where September lows average near 57°F at SFO, supports trader emphasis on warmer outcomes like 68°F or higher. Model consensus highlights modest wind shifts and mixing aloft as key variables that could nudge the minimum, with updated NWS guidance and overnight observations serving as primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$77End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a mild overnight period for San Francisco on September 25, with lows likely in the upper 50s to low 60s amid a warming trend through midweek followed by gradual cooling from an approaching dry cold front and stronger onshore flow. This setup, combined with limited marine layer development and seasonal norms where September lows average near 57°F at SFO, supports trader emphasis on warmer outcomes like 68°F or higher. Model consensus highlights modest wind shifts and mixing aloft as key variables that could nudge the minimum, with updated NWS guidance and overnight observations serving as primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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