Recent forecast model runs show significant divergence in overnight cloud cover and radiative cooling potential for Mexico City on September 25, driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 16°C-plus outcomes. At 2,240 meters elevation, clear or partly cloudy skies under light winds allow rapid heat loss after sunset, while persistent light rain and overcast conditions from the current pattern moderate minimums toward 12–14°C. High uncertainty in GEM, GFS, and ECMWF guidance on precipitation timing and humidity levels through the 24th–25th window keeps trader sentiment balanced, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 25?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 25?
6°C or below 97%
16°C or higher 49%
7°C 39%
8°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
6°C or below
97%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
20%
12°C
20%
13°C
20%
14°C
21%
15°C
21%
16°C or higher
49%
6°C or below 97%
16°C or higher 49%
7°C 39%
8°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
6°C or below
$10 Vol.
97%
7°C
$10 Vol.
39%
8°C
$10 Vol.
39%
9°C
$10 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show significant divergence in overnight cloud cover and radiative cooling potential for Mexico City on September 25, driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 16°C-plus outcomes. At 2,240 meters elevation, clear or partly cloudy skies under light winds allow rapid heat loss after sunset, while persistent light rain and overcast conditions from the current pattern moderate minimums toward 12–14°C. High uncertainty in GEM, GFS, and ECMWF guidance on precipitation timing and humidity levels through the 24th–25th window keeps trader sentiment balanced, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show significant divergence in overnight cloud cover and radiative cooling potential for Mexico City on September 25, driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 16°C-plus outcomes. At 2,240 meters elevation, clear or partly cloudy skies under light winds allow rapid heat loss after sunset, while persistent light rain and overcast conditions from the current pattern moderate minimums toward 12–14°C. High uncertainty in GEM, GFS, and ECMWF guidance on precipitation timing and humidity levels through the 24th–25th window keeps trader sentiment balanced, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs show significant divergence in overnight cloud cover and radiative cooling potential for Mexico City on September 25, driving the near-even split between sub-7°C and 16°C-plus outcomes. At 2,240 meters elevation, clear or partly cloudy skies under light winds allow rapid heat loss after sunset, while persistent light rain and overcast conditions from the current pattern moderate minimums toward 12–14°C. High uncertainty in GEM, GFS, and ECMWF guidance on precipitation timing and humidity levels through the 24th–25th window keeps trader sentiment balanced, with resolution hinging on the final 48-hour model consensus and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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