Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and real-time observations indicate Moscow's daytime maximum on September 25, 2026, peaked near 12°C under variable cloud cover, light rain, and southerly winds of 3–10 m/s. Multiple model runs and station data cluster tightly around this value, consistent with late-September climatology for the region where daytime highs typically range 10–15°C. The overwhelming 98.5% market-implied probability for exactly 12°C reflects this strong observational consensus and limited upside potential from the current atmospheric setup. A brief unobserved spike above 13°C at an official station or post-event data revision remains the main scenario that could shift resolution.