**Forecast consensus from Russian meteorological sources and global models positions 16°C as the most likely daytime high for Moscow on September 26, 2026, with a secondary chance for 17°C.** Recent runs show mild conditions driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air, yielding partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds (2–8 m/s), and no precipitation—pushing temperatures 2–4°C above the 1991–2020 average high of 14.2°C. Official guidance from Yandex Weather and the Hydrometeorological Centre indicates a peak near +16°C, with some variance to +17–18°C depending on exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Model agreement is strong for this range, with minimal spread in the latest GFS-derived outputs. The market's heavy weighting toward 16°C and 17°C (combined ~80% implied probability) reflects this tight forecast cluster just one day before resolution.