**Trader consensus on a 28°C high for Chengdu on September 25 rests on the latest official forecasts and early observational data from the Chengdu Meteorological Station and regional models, which converge on a daily maximum of 28°C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and high humidity.** These conditions support gradual daytime warming without strong convective cooling or heavy rain, aligning with the upper end of typical late-September ranges in the Sichuan Basin. Historical analogs and current model runs show limited spread, reinforcing the market-implied outcome. Only an unexpected shift in steering patterns or localized station-specific cooling could realistically alter the recorded high, though such deviations appear improbable given the stable atmospheric setup.