Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate a peak temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 25, 2026, under stable anticyclonic conditions with mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds. This setup favors strong daytime heating, though limited cloud cover and dry air may moderate the exact maximum. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 26–28°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 41.5% for 27°C and 25% for 28°C. Historical September averages near 20°C underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the current high-pressure regime. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with resolution hinging on official observations rather than further forecast shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 25?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 25?
27°C 42%
28°C 25%
26°C 17%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
17%
27°C
42%
28°C
25%
29°C
11%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 42%
28°C 25%
26°C 17%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$167 Vol.
7%
26°C
$340 Vol.
17%
27°C
$338 Vol.
42%
28°C
$1,064 Vol.
25%
29°C
$365 Vol.
11%
30°C
$206 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate a peak temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 25, 2026, under stable anticyclonic conditions with mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds. This setup favors strong daytime heating, though limited cloud cover and dry air may moderate the exact maximum. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 26–28°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 41.5% for 27°C and 25% for 28°C. Historical September averages near 20°C underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the current high-pressure regime. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with resolution hinging on official observations rather than further forecast shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,555End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate a peak temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 25, 2026, under stable anticyclonic conditions with mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds. This setup favors strong daytime heating, though limited cloud cover and dry air may moderate the exact maximum. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 26–28°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 41.5% for 27°C and 25% for 28°C. Historical September averages near 20°C underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the current high-pressure regime. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with resolution hinging on official observations rather than further forecast shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,555End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, indicate a peak temperature near 27°C in Paris on September 25, 2026, under stable anticyclonic conditions with mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds. This setup favors strong daytime heating, though limited cloud cover and dry air may moderate the exact maximum. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around 26–28°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 41.5% for 27°C and 25% for 28°C. Historical September averages near 20°C underscore the anomalous warmth driven by the current high-pressure regime. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily, with resolution hinging on official observations rather than further forecast shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions