Recent model consensus points to cold air advection and Huaxi autumn rain patterns suppressing daytime heating over the Sichuan Basin on September 27, with widespread cloud cover, scattered light rain, and high humidity limiting solar insolation and keeping maximum temperatures clustered in the mid- to upper-20s °C. Ensemble spreads in global and regional forecasts produce the tight market distribution around 27–29 °C, as small differences in precipitation timing, cloud optical depth, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Official guidance from Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and numerical outputs currently favor values near 26–28 °C, with limited upside potential unless clearer skies develop earlier than expected. Updated short-range model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.