Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, indicate Warsaw will experience mostly cloudy conditions with light westerly winds and a chance of showers on September 25, limiting daytime heating. This setup favors a maximum near 15°C, consistent with the current market-implied odds split closely between 15°C and 16°C. Persistent cloud cover reduces insolation while mild Atlantic air moderates temperatures, though slight variations in precipitation timing or clearing could push the peak one degree higher or lower. Historical September averages for the city hover around 16–18°C, making the expected cooler outcome notable amid the broader seasonal transition. Updated high-resolution model runs and official IMGW guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 25?
15°C 39%
16°C 36%
14°C 20%
13°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
20%
15°C
39%
16°C
36%
17°C
8%
18°C
7%
19°C
3%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 39%
16°C 36%
14°C 20%
13°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 25, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
4%
13°C
$0 Vol.
9%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$8 Vol.
36%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$60 Vol.
3%
20°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$256 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, indicate Warsaw will experience mostly cloudy conditions with light westerly winds and a chance of showers on September 25, limiting daytime heating. This setup favors a maximum near 15°C, consistent with the current market-implied odds split closely between 15°C and 16°C. Persistent cloud cover reduces insolation while mild Atlantic air moderates temperatures, though slight variations in precipitation timing or clearing could push the peak one degree higher or lower. Historical September averages for the city hover around 16–18°C, making the expected cooler outcome notable amid the broader seasonal transition. Updated high-resolution model runs and official IMGW guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$419End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, indicate Warsaw will experience mostly cloudy conditions with light westerly winds and a chance of showers on September 25, limiting daytime heating. This setup favors a maximum near 15°C, consistent with the current market-implied odds split closely between 15°C and 16°C. Persistent cloud cover reduces insolation while mild Atlantic air moderates temperatures, though slight variations in precipitation timing or clearing could push the peak one degree higher or lower. Historical September averages for the city hover around 16–18°C, making the expected cooler outcome notable amid the broader seasonal transition. Updated high-resolution model runs and official IMGW guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$419End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, indicate Warsaw will experience mostly cloudy conditions with light westerly winds and a chance of showers on September 25, limiting daytime heating. This setup favors a maximum near 15°C, consistent with the current market-implied odds split closely between 15°C and 16°C. Persistent cloud cover reduces insolation while mild Atlantic air moderates temperatures, though slight variations in precipitation timing or clearing could push the peak one degree higher or lower. Historical September averages for the city hover around 16–18°C, making the expected cooler outcome notable amid the broader seasonal transition. Updated high-resolution model runs and official IMGW guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions