Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air into central Poland, supporting a daytime high near 15–16°C in Warsaw on September 23 with partial cloud cover and isolated light showers. This setup limits surface heating through reduced insolation and enhanced mixing, while dew points near 7–9°C and modest pressure rises around 1020 hPa further cap warming. Trader preference for 17°C over 16°C reflects minor model spread in cloud timing and wind speed; clearer breaks or lighter northwest flow could allow brief additional warming toward 17–18°C, whereas persistent stratiform clouds or earlier showers would favor the lower end of that range. Updated runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
17°C 39%
16°C 38%
19°C 13%
15°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
10°C or below
3%
11°C
4%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
9%
15°C
12%
16°C
38%
17°C
39%
18°C
12%
19°C
13%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 39%
16°C 38%
19°C 13%
15°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
11°C
$45 Vol.
4%
12°C
$45 Vol.
3%
13°C
$12 Vol.
5%
14°C
$10 Vol.
9%
15°C
$10 Vol.
12%
16°C
$17 Vol.
38%
17°C
$283 Vol.
39%
18°C
$5 Vol.
12%
19°C
$10 Vol.
13%
20°C or higher
$25 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air into central Poland, supporting a daytime high near 15–16°C in Warsaw on September 23 with partial cloud cover and isolated light showers. This setup limits surface heating through reduced insolation and enhanced mixing, while dew points near 7–9°C and modest pressure rises around 1020 hPa further cap warming. Trader preference for 17°C over 16°C reflects minor model spread in cloud timing and wind speed; clearer breaks or lighter northwest flow could allow brief additional warming toward 17–18°C, whereas persistent stratiform clouds or earlier showers would favor the lower end of that range. Updated runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$466End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air into central Poland, supporting a daytime high near 15–16°C in Warsaw on September 23 with partial cloud cover and isolated light showers. This setup limits surface heating through reduced insolation and enhanced mixing, while dew points near 7–9°C and modest pressure rises around 1020 hPa further cap warming. Trader preference for 17°C over 16°C reflects minor model spread in cloud timing and wind speed; clearer breaks or lighter northwest flow could allow brief additional warming toward 17–18°C, whereas persistent stratiform clouds or earlier showers would favor the lower end of that range. Updated runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$466End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS and local agencies points to a northwest airflow advecting cooler maritime air into central Poland, supporting a daytime high near 15–16°C in Warsaw on September 23 with partial cloud cover and isolated light showers. This setup limits surface heating through reduced insolation and enhanced mixing, while dew points near 7–9°C and modest pressure rises around 1020 hPa further cap warming. Trader preference for 17°C over 16°C reflects minor model spread in cloud timing and wind speed; clearer breaks or lighter northwest flow could allow brief additional warming toward 17–18°C, whereas persistent stratiform clouds or earlier showers would favor the lower end of that range. Updated runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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