Recent forecasts from models including GFS and local European sources indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw of approximately 9–10°C overnight into September 23, 2026, driven by northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, partly cloudy skies, and light drizzle or clearing conditions that permit moderate radiative cooling under high pressure near 1020 hPa. This aligns with the seasonal climatological minimum near 8–9°C for late September and supports the market-implied 44% probability on exactly 9°C as the leading outcome. Outlier probabilities on 14°C or higher or 4°C or below reflect residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, though current runs show limited downside risk below 8°C absent an unexpected cold advection shift. Traders are weighting the consensus minimum from updated runs, with resolution hinging on official overnight observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
4°C or below 63%
14°C or higher 61%
9°C 44%
12°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
4°C or below
63%
5°C
2%
6°C
13%
7°C
9%
8°C
22%
9°C
44%
10°C
22%
11°C
21%
12°C
25%
13°C
12%
14°C or higher
61%
4°C or below 63%
14°C or higher 61%
9°C 44%
12°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
4°C or below
$200 Vol.
63%
5°C
$50 Vol.
2%
6°C
$40 Vol.
13%
7°C
$0 Vol.
9%
8°C
$0 Vol.
22%
9°C
$31 Vol.
44%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$6 Vol.
25%
13°C
$25 Vol.
12%
14°C or higher
$140 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and local European sources indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw of approximately 9–10°C overnight into September 23, 2026, driven by northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, partly cloudy skies, and light drizzle or clearing conditions that permit moderate radiative cooling under high pressure near 1020 hPa. This aligns with the seasonal climatological minimum near 8–9°C for late September and supports the market-implied 44% probability on exactly 9°C as the leading outcome. Outlier probabilities on 14°C or higher or 4°C or below reflect residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, though current runs show limited downside risk below 8°C absent an unexpected cold advection shift. Traders are weighting the consensus minimum from updated runs, with resolution hinging on official overnight observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$493End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and local European sources indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw of approximately 9–10°C overnight into September 23, 2026, driven by northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, partly cloudy skies, and light drizzle or clearing conditions that permit moderate radiative cooling under high pressure near 1020 hPa. This aligns with the seasonal climatological minimum near 8–9°C for late September and supports the market-implied 44% probability on exactly 9°C as the leading outcome. Outlier probabilities on 14°C or higher or 4°C or below reflect residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, though current runs show limited downside risk below 8°C absent an unexpected cold advection shift. Traders are weighting the consensus minimum from updated runs, with resolution hinging on official overnight observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$493End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and local European sources indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw of approximately 9–10°C overnight into September 23, 2026, driven by northwest winds of 3–5 m/s, partly cloudy skies, and light drizzle or clearing conditions that permit moderate radiative cooling under high pressure near 1020 hPa. This aligns with the seasonal climatological minimum near 8–9°C for late September and supports the market-implied 44% probability on exactly 9°C as the leading outcome. Outlier probabilities on 14°C or higher or 4°C or below reflect residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, though current runs show limited downside risk below 8°C absent an unexpected cold advection shift. Traders are weighting the consensus minimum from updated runs, with resolution hinging on official overnight observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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