Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Warsaw's September 22 minimum will likely settle near 9–11 °C under lingering cloud cover and light showers, with daytime highs around 14–17 °C as a weak frontal system passes. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet market odds remain nearly even between sub-4 °C and 14 °C+ extremes because ensemble spreads still allow for stronger nocturnal cooling if skies clear or winds weaken more than expected. Historical September minima in the city average near 10 °C, providing context for the current setup. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the daily low is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 22?
4°C or below 100%
14°C or higher 98%
8°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
4°C or below
100%
5°C
22%
6°C
24%
7°C
39%
8°C
40%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
33%
12°C
39%
13°C
39%
14°C or higher
98%
4°C or below 100%
14°C or higher 98%
8°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
5°C
$0 Vol.
22%
6°C
$0 Vol.
24%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
33%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Warsaw's September 22 minimum will likely settle near 9–11 °C under lingering cloud cover and light showers, with daytime highs around 14–17 °C as a weak frontal system passes. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet market odds remain nearly even between sub-4 °C and 14 °C+ extremes because ensemble spreads still allow for stronger nocturnal cooling if skies clear or winds weaken more than expected. Historical September minima in the city average near 10 °C, providing context for the current setup. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the daily low is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Warsaw's September 22 minimum will likely settle near 9–11 °C under lingering cloud cover and light showers, with daytime highs around 14–17 °C as a weak frontal system passes. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet market odds remain nearly even between sub-4 °C and 14 °C+ extremes because ensemble spreads still allow for stronger nocturnal cooling if skies clear or winds weaken more than expected. Historical September minima in the city average near 10 °C, providing context for the current setup. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the daily low is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Warsaw's September 22 minimum will likely settle near 9–11 °C under lingering cloud cover and light showers, with daytime highs around 14–17 °C as a weak frontal system passes. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet market odds remain nearly even between sub-4 °C and 14 °C+ extremes because ensemble spreads still allow for stronger nocturnal cooling if skies clear or winds weaken more than expected. Historical September minima in the city average near 10 °C, providing context for the current setup. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the daily low is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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