The approaching frontal system and associated widespread rain and thunderstorms represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment for Ankara's September 28 minimum temperature. Official and model guidance converge on overnight lows near 12–14°C amid persistent cloud cover, moderate northwesterly winds, and elevated humidity that limit radiative cooling while advecting cooler air. Slight forecast divergences arise from uncertainty in exact precipitation timing, wind strength, and any partial clearing that could enhance surface heat loss or allow modest warming. These factors explain the tight clustering around mid-teens outcomes versus the elevated probabilities assigned to extremes, with resolution hinging on the final 24-hour observational updates from regional meteorological services.