Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin shows the overnight low on October 4 centered near 70–72 °F under mostly cloudy skies and northerly flow, with limited radiational cooling expected. This places the outcome near the middle buckets yet leaves room for divergence: stronger boundary-layer mixing or persistent cloud cover could hold temperatures above 80 °F, while clearer breaks and lighter winds would allow greater surface cooling toward the mid-60s or lower. Model spreads remain wide because the steering pattern and moisture profile are still evolving, keeping the market-implied odds for the coolest and warmest tails nearly even as traders weigh the latest guidance updates ahead of tonight’s final forecast cycle.