Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight persistent cloud cover, heavy thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds over Beijing on August 25, 2026, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep the overnight minimum near 24–25°C. High humidity above 80% and ongoing precipitation further suppress temperature drops below these levels, consistent with historical analogs under similar late-summer monsoon-influenced patterns. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 23°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual model spread around the precise low. No sharp cold advection or clearing skies are expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
23°C 34%
24°C 27%
22°C 7%
21°C or below 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
3%
22°C
7%
23°C
34%
24°C
27%
25°C
59%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 34%
24°C 27%
22°C 7%
21°C or below 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$280 Vol.
3%
22°C
$103 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
34%
24°C
$4 Vol.
27%
25°C
$63 Vol.
59%
26°C
$428 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$937 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$614 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight persistent cloud cover, heavy thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds over Beijing on August 25, 2026, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep the overnight minimum near 24–25°C. High humidity above 80% and ongoing precipitation further suppress temperature drops below these levels, consistent with historical analogs under similar late-summer monsoon-influenced patterns. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 23°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual model spread around the precise low. No sharp cold advection or clearing skies are expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,574End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight persistent cloud cover, heavy thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds over Beijing on August 25, 2026, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep the overnight minimum near 24–25°C. High humidity above 80% and ongoing precipitation further suppress temperature drops below these levels, consistent with historical analogs under similar late-summer monsoon-influenced patterns. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 23°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual model spread around the precise low. No sharp cold advection or clearing skies are expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,574End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight persistent cloud cover, heavy thunderstorms, and moderate northeasterly winds over Beijing on August 25, 2026, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep the overnight minimum near 24–25°C. High humidity above 80% and ongoing precipitation further suppress temperature drops below these levels, consistent with historical analogs under similar late-summer monsoon-influenced patterns. Trader consensus, reflected in the 59% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 23°C, aligns with this forecast consensus while acknowledging residual model spread around the precise low. No sharp cold advection or clearing skies are expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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