Recent forecast models from GFS and other sources project a daily minimum around 10–13°C for Buenos Aires on October 1, consistent with early-spring climatology where average lows rise from September’s 11–12°C range. Primary drivers include Atlantic maritime air moderating temperatures alongside potential weak frontal passages that could enhance overnight cooling or allow warmer northerly flow to elevate minima. The balanced 50% market-implied odds on the 6°C-or-below and 16°C-or-higher tails reflect genuine short-term uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing, while mid-range buckets near 30–45% align with ensemble consensus. Updated model runs and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten resolution criteria around observed minimum readings.