Recent model consensus points to overnight lows in Buenos Aires on October 11 clustered between 9–12 °C under persistent cloud cover and light southerly flow, yet market odds remain nearly even between sub-4 °C and 14 °C-plus outcomes because small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing can shift minimum temperatures by several degrees. A recent perturbation has maintained fresh southerly winds and high humidity, suppressing daytime heating and limiting radiative cooling at night compared with clearer spring climatology. Official guidance from regional models shows modest spread in the 06–09 UTC window when the daily minimum typically occurs, with drier air or brief clearing potentially allowing stronger cooling while continued overcast conditions favor the milder range. Updated high-resolution runs expected before October 10 will likely narrow this uncertainty and influence final positioning ahead of resolution.