Recent forecast guidance for Busan on October 1 highlights northwest winds of 5–8 mph and mostly clear skies overnight, promoting radiative cooling that supports a minimum near 17–18°C, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 13–18°C. Model runs show modest spread due to variable boundary-layer mixing and dew points near 15–17°C, which limit how far temperatures can drop before dawn. This uncertainty explains the near-even implied probabilities across those thresholds, while extremes below 12°C or above 19°C remain unlikely given the current airmass and historical early-October climatology of 14–15°C lows. Updated model output tonight will refine the exact minimum before resolution.